Major exit poll agencies stay silent, Mamata raises concerns

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has publicly raised this allegation. Without reservation, she stated that such surveys were conducted under the direction of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah.

She said, “These surveys are being used to project a BJP victory. They are intended to break the morale of the opposition.”

Among the agencies that have released exit poll results this time, five have placed the BJP ahead, while two have projected the Trinamool Congress in the lead.

The Trinamool leader asserted on Thursday, “In 2016, 2021, and 2024 as well, the BJP used this same tactic. Survey agencies were pressured to say that the BJP was winning. Everyone knows what the actual results were. This time too, the Trinamool Congress will win 226 seats. It may even reach 230.”

As in previous elections, Axis My India published exit polls for Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry.

However, although it provided projections for other states, it remained silent on West Bengal.

Much later, the organisation’s head, Pradeep Gupta, clarified that they would not release survey results for West Bengal.

He explained that nearly 70 per cent of respondents in the state had been unwilling to speak about their vote. Due to the insufficient sample size, they did not conduct a conclusive exit poll.

When asked why people were reluctant to respond, Gupta stated that the intensive revision of the electoral roll (SIR) had created an atmosphere of fear. As a result, voters were unwilling to share their views with unfamiliar individuals.

C Voter also adopted a different approach this time. In an article, C Voter's Yashwant Deshmukh and Sutanu Guru explained their decision not to publish projections, writing that the contest was extremely close, and they did not wish to take the risk of predicting seat numbers.

Regarding West Bengal, they noted that they observed two contrasting trends: a strong anti-incumbency sentiment alongside the personal popularity of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, particularly among women. This made it highly risky to estimate seat distribution.

The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), although it does not directly conduct exit polls, typically offers insights into democracy, society, and political trends through its Lokniti programme.

Despite its active role in major elections, it has remained notably silent this time.

Mamata Banerjee claimed that this silence was not voluntary. She stated, “This is not voluntary silence; it is a refusal to bow to political pressure.”

To prevent any irregularities during vote counting, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Trinamool Member of Parliament Abhishek Banerjee have instructed party workers to remain vigilant, with the cooperation of the Election Commission.