Britain's foreign secretary, Ed Miliband, will warn world leaders at the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, on Wednesday that the national security of every country is at risk from the climate crisis.
Miliband will say that security and defense are the "new frontier" of climate action because rapid heating will lead to food shortages, widespread economic disruption, migration and conflict. "National security is the next frontier of the fight for climate action," he said. "The scenarios once of science fiction are now regular occurrences in the daily news."
In a swipe at the Conservatives and Reform UK, which want to scrap efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions, he said: "Those who seek to stick their heads in the sand on climate are putting our national security at risk."
Miliband arrived in Turkey on Tuesday evening for the two-day leaders' segment on Wednesday and Thursday of the fortnight-long talks, which began on Monday. Prime Minister Andy Burnham is expected to travel on Wednesday for bilateral meetings with other leaders on Thursday.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will open the leaders' segment. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whose country will host next year's meeting, are also due to speak.
Miliband will say that an overshoot of the 1.5C global heating threshold is now inevitable, as temperatures have exceeded that level for two years and are unlikely to fall significantly. He will argue that this calls for stronger policies to stop heating from accelerating and to bring temperatures back to safer levels in the decades ahead.
He will also point to fossil fuel shocks, such as this year's soaring oil price after the start of the Iran war, which has led to rampant inflation and interest rate rises. "First Russia, now Iran, next others, have identified global chokepoints and systemic overreliance and the vulnerability of countries around the world that they expose," he said.
Burnham's government is under fire in Britain from campaigners who say recent and looming decisions will push the country off track from its 2050 net zero target. It plans to weaken a mandate requiring carmakers to sell more electric vehicles by 2030, has approved the Jackdaw gasfield in the North Sea and is considering licensing the Rosebank oilfield west of Shetland.
